Rising consumer prices in the U.S. moderated again last month, bolstering hopes that inflation’s grip on the economy will continue to ease this year and possibly require less drastic action by the Federal Reserve to control it. Inflation eased to 6.5% in December compared with 12 months earlier, the government said Thursday. It was the sixth straight month of year-over-year slowdowns. On a monthly basis, prices actually slipped 0.1% from November to December, the first such drop since May 2020.
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The softer readings add to growing signs that the worst inflation bout in four decades is gradually waning. Still, the Fed doesn’t expect inflation to slow enough to get close to its 2% target until well into 2024. The central bank is expected to raise its benchmark rate by at least a quarter-point when it next meets at the end of this month.
Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core prices rose 5.7% in December from a year earlier, slower than the 6% year-over-year increase in November. From November to December, core prices increased just 0.3%.
Grocery prices rose 0.2% from November to December, the smallest such increase in nearly two years. Still, those prices are up 11.8% from a year ago.
Behind much of the decline in overall inflation are falling gas prices. The national average price of a gallon of gas has tumbled from $5 in June to $3.27 as of Wednesday, according to AAA.
Also contributing to the slowdown are used car prices, which fell for a sixth straight month in December. New car prices declined, too. The cost of airline tickets and personal care such as haircuts also dropped.
Supply chain snarls that previously inflated the cost of goods have largely unraveled. Consumers have also shifted much of their spending away from physical goods and instead toward services, such as travel and entertainment. As a result, the cost of goods, including used cars, furniture and clothing, has dropped for two straight months.
Last week’s jobs report for December bolstered the possibility that a recession could be avoided. Even after the Fed’s seven rate hikes last year and with inflation still high, employers added a solid 223,000 jobs in December, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, matching the lowest level in 53 years.
At the same time, average hourly pay growth slowed, which should lessen pressure on companies to raise prices to cover their higher labor costs.
Another positive sign for the Fed’s efforts to quell inflation is that Americans overall expect price increases to decline over the next few years. That is important because so-called “inflation expectations” can be self-fulfilling: If people expect prices to keep rising sharply, they will typically take steps, like demanding higher pay, that can perpetuate high inflation.
On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that consumers now anticipate inflation of 5% over the next year. That’s the lowest such expectation in nearly 18 months. Over the next five years, consumers expect inflation to average 2.4%, only barely above the Fed’s 2% target.
Still, in their remarks in recent weeks, Fed officials have underscored their intent to raise their benchmark short-term rate by an additional three-quarters of a point in the coming months to just above 5%. Such increases would come on top of seven hikes last year, which led mortgage rates to nearly double and made auto loans and business borrowing more expensive.
Futures prices show that investors expect the central bank to be less aggressive and implement just two quarter-point hikes by March, leaving the Fed’s rate just below 5%. Investors also project that the Fed will cut rates in November and December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has sought to push back against the expectation of fewer hikes this spring and cuts by the end of the year, which can make the Fed’s job harder if investors bid up stock prices and lower bond yields. Both trends can support faster economic growth just when the Fed is trying to cool it down.
For some COVID-19 patients, the initial illness isn’t nearly as bad as the persistent and sometimes disabling symptoms that linger for months or years afterward. These are the people with long COVID, a complex chronic illness that can afflict without regard for age, sex, vaccination status or medical history.
A study of nearly 2 million patients in Israel offers new insights into the trajectory of long COVID, particularly for younger, healthier people whose COVID-19 cases were mild. Researchers found that although most protracted symptoms subsided within a year, some of the syndrome’s most debilitating consequences — namely dizziness, loss of taste and smell, and problems with concentration and memory — still plague a minority of sufferers a full year after the initial infection.
The researchers matched each coronavirus-positive subject with an uninfected person in the sample who had the same age, sex and vaccination status and a similar history of risk factors like diabetes, cancer and obesity, among other preexisting conditions. Then the investigators tracked the medical records of both members of each pair to see the health issues they experienced over the following 12 months.
Police never searched a Richmond-area apartment belonging to Austin Lee Edwards, the Virginia cop who killed three relatives of a 15-year-old Riverside girl whom police say he “catfished” online.
A judge approved Edwards’ eviction from that apartment Wednesday. Now that the eviction is official, any evidence that might exist within could be removed or destroyed, if it has not been already.
In addition to the Riverside 15-year-old he kidnapped, Edwards pursued at least one other child, a 13-year-old girl whom he solicited nude photos from even after she disclosed her age. Experts say that many predators have multiple victims and that any evidence, especially technology or paper files, could aid police in learning about other children or abusers.
But the Riverside Police Department, which is leading the investigation into the murders, did not see a need to search the apartment.
“We did not need to in relation to our investigation,” Ryan Railsback, a spokesman for the department, said in a statement. Officials had “already had items seized from his [Saltville] house that are relevant to our murder investigation,” Railsback added.
The Chesterfield County police department and sheriff’s office did not search Edwards’ Richmond-area apartment either, officials there said.
At some point, police will want to secure a warrant and conduct a search to determine if there is any evidence to suggest if Edwards abused other victims, said William Pelfrey, a professor of criminal justice at Virginia Commonwealth University’s Wilder School of Government. “He is dead. So there is no case to be made against him. But if there were other victims or firearms, that seems like something police would want to know,” he said. Police may be reluctant to search Edwards’ apartment because having an officer commit murder and pursue children sexually is “not a good look” for law enforcement
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